Understanding confidence

Every alert carries a confidence label — High, Medium or Low — and the list of reasons behind it.

Confidence is not a probability

"High confidence" does not mean "90 % likely". TaktSignal's confidence is a rule-based label about the evidence: how complete, fresh and direct the data behind the alert is, and how many assumptions the rule had to make. It has not been statistically calibrated against real outcomes — that is one of the things Community Alpha feedback (alert outcomes) will measure. Read it as "how much should I double-check this?".

Label	Read it as
High	The data behind the alert is complete and fresh and the rule made no significant assumption. Still verify before acting.
Medium	Something is incomplete, unconfirmed or assumed. The alert may still be right; check the listed reasons first.
Low	Data the alert depends on is stale or its last sync failed. Treat it as a prompt to refresh and look, not as a finding.

What lowers confidence

Each of these appears as a reason on the alert:

• Stale source — the data class the rule uses (inventory, production, orders, master data) has not been read successfully for longer than the staleness limit (Settings → Data is stale after). → Low
• Failed sync — the last read of that data failed. → Low
• Age unknown — TaktSignal cannot tell how old the data is. Unknown is never shown as fresh. → Medium
• Incomplete data — a document type is not readable (for example Job Card or Warehouse), the source is still catching up, or records were quarantined. → Medium
• Unconfirmed or overdue ETA — a purchase order's delivery date is not confirmed, or is already past. → Medium
• Assumed duration — for example "one shift to clear" a blocked operation, because ERPNext has no better data. → Medium
• Assumed calendar — a work center has no configured shifts, so a default working calendar is assumed. Configure shifts under Settings. → Medium
• Assumed operation window — a material's need date is estimated from the work order's window because ERPNext stores no planned time per operation. → Medium
• ERPNext's own estimate — a late-completion alert that relies on ERPNext's continuous-time planned end date. → Medium
• Stock of unknown warehouse scope — stock exists in warehouses TaktSignal cannot classify, so it is not counted. → Medium
• Low inventory trust — the material's recorded stock is doubtful (Data Trust). → Medium

Confidence of material and capacity evidence carries over to the late-completion and customer-delivery alerts that depend on it.

Why confidence changes

Confidence is recalculated whenever data changes and on a schedule. It rises when a sync completes, an ETA is confirmed in ERPNext or a calendar is configured; it falls when data becomes stale or a sync fails. The alert timeline records each change.